The African Union (AU) has acknowledged that the lack of an impartial guarantor has significantly delayed the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, with key issues remaining unresolved in Tigray. These include the withdrawal of non-Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) troops, the return of displaced persons, and ongoing political disputes.
A 51-page report titled Lessons Learned from the AU-Led Peace Process for the Tigray Region of Ethiopia reveals that without a neutral party overseeing the terms of the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA), the AU has struggled to enforce strict compliance. While the AU’s deployment of monitors has received praise, the absence of impartial guarantors has eroded trust in the peace process, leaving tensions to rise in the region.
Tigray leaders, including Getachew Reda, president of the Tigray Interim Administration, and Debretsion Gebremichael, chairperson of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), have voiced concerns over the slow pace of the agreement’s implementation. Reda called for the return of displaced persons to their constitutional territories, while Gebremichael stressed the need for urgent action on issues like the withdrawal of foreign troops and the restoration of Tigray’s constitutional rights.
Foreign Minister Gedion Timothiwos also expressed concern over escalating tensions, calling for more direct dialogue to prevent further division and reject any attempts to derail the peace process from both local and foreign actors.
The AU report further explores the broader dynamics of the peace negotiations, noting that the AU’s efforts helped prevent Ethiopia’s conflict from being placed on the UN Security Council’s agenda, allowing the organization to maintain control of the peace process. However, the report highlights reservations about Olusegun Obasanjo, the former Nigerian president who played a key role in the talks. Both TPLF and federal government factions were skeptical of Obasanjo’s neutrality due to his involvement in the 2021 Ethiopian elections and his ties to the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
Logistical issues also threatened to disrupt the peace talks, including the lack of passports and COVID-19 vaccinations for the TPLF negotiating team. However, these challenges were addressed with assistance from the AU and the South African government, allowing the negotiations to continue.
Additionally, a media leak by French outlet Le Monde about a potential peace talks venue in Tanzania nearly derailed the negotiations. This led to a shift in the location to South Africa, where the peace talks were successfully held with funding from the African Development Bank.
