MIDRAND, South Africa, May 31 – South Africa’s political landscape is shifting as parties prepare for coalition talks following the African National Congress (ANC) losing its majority for the first time in three decades.
With nearly 70% of polling stations reporting, the ANC has garnered 41.8% of the vote, a significant drop from the 57.5% it achieved in 2019. Despite remaining the largest party, the ANC, historically the party of Nelson Mandela, has faced backlash for years of economic decline and increasing poverty.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) trails with 22.6%, while the newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, has captured 12.2% of the vote, significantly eroding ANC support, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) hold 9.5%, making MK the third largest party in parliament.
The distribution of votes will determine parliamentary seats, influencing the election of the next president. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa may still retain his position, but the ANC’s poor performance could trigger a leadership challenge. Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane stated that Ramaphosa would not resign and that the ANC would consult its structures before making any decisions.
Analysts believe the ANC cannot secure a parliamentary majority but may reach around 42% of the vote. Reza Omar, strategic research director at Citizen Surveys, indicated that strongholds like Limpopo, Eastern Cape, and North West could still affect the final tally.
For the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC faces the prospect of forming a coalition. South Africans have seen the economy stagnate, unemployment and poverty rise, and infrastructure deteriorate, resulting in regular power outages.
Speculation abounds regarding potential coalition partners for the ANC. DA leader John Steenhuisen mentioned plans to consult the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), an alliance of 11 opposition parties, about expanding their coalition options. However, the MPC alone cannot secure more than 50% of the vote share, and alliances with the EFF or MK seem unlikely due to ideological differences.
Steenhuisen has not ruled out a coalition with the ANC to prevent a so-called “doomsday coalition” involving the EFF or MK. Meanwhile, MK’s spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela stated they might partner with the ANC, but not under Ramaphosa’s leadership.
The uncertainty has impacted the government bond market, with prices of South Africa’s main internationally traded bonds falling for the third consecutive day, reaching their lowest level in almost a month. Investors and the business community are wary of an ANC coalition with the EFF, which advocates for land seizures and nationalization, or with MK, which also supports land confiscation.
By law, the election commission has seven days to release full provisional results, with officials aiming for a Sunday announcement.
