According to a third and final nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited (NOIPolls), Peter Obi, the flag bearer of the Labour Party (LP), maintains a lead ahead of the February 25 presidential election.
The poll was concluded in the first half of February 2023, following two earlier polls carried out in September and December 2022. The methodology used by NOI polls is almost identical to that used in previous presidential and governorship polls, which have been reliable indicators of election outcomes.
Obi leads with 21% of registered voters proposing to vote for him, with Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) trailing behind. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) emerged as the “lone outsider”.
| Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for? | ||||||||
| Total (%) | Distribution across Geo-Political Zones | Poll Ranking | ||||||
| North Central | North East | North West | South East | South South | South West | |||
| Peter Obi (LP) | 21% | 24% | 6% | 8% | 53% | 38% | 14% | 1st |
| Bola Tinubu (APC) | 13% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 1% | 3% | 15% | 2nd |
| Atiku Abubakar (PDP) | 10% | 4% | 17% | 20% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3rd |
| Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) | 3% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4th |
| Undecided | 23% | 20% | 28% | 26% | 7% | 19% | 30% | |
| Refused | 30% | 35% | 29% | 18% | 36% | 34% | 38% | |
| Total | 100% | |||||||
| Source: NOIPolls – February2023 |
However, with 23% of voters undecided and 30% preferring not to reveal their preferred candidate, Obi’s 8%-point lead is significant but not enough to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10%, and 3%.
Additionally, the gender split of undecided voters shows that 27% of women are undecided versus 18% of male registered voters.