The nation grapples with a deepening unemployment crisis in the lead-up to South Africa’s impending national and provincial elections on May 29th. Recent data released on Tuesday revealed a concerning trend, indicating a consecutive increase in unemployment for the second quarter, soaring to 32.9% in the initial three months of this year.
This uptick, from 32.1% recorded in the previous quarter, brings South Africa’s official unemployment rate perilously close to its record high of 35.3%, a grim milestone reached amidst the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2021.
At the forefront of this unsettling development lies the African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party since the dawn of democracy. Facing perhaps its most formidable electoral challenge to date, the ANC confronts the palpable risk of losing its parliamentary majority, according to prevailing opinion polls.
The shadow of unemployment looms large over the electorate’s concerns, having surged by approximately 10 percentage points over the three decades of ANC governance since the iconic Nelson Mandela led the party to power. The first quarter of 2024 witnessed notable declines in employment, particularly within the community and social services, and construction sectors. Conversely, sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and mining experienced marginal job gains.
Eminent economists such as Frank Blackmore, KPMG South Africa’s lead economist, underscore the ominous trajectory of unemployment. Blackmore warns that unless the economy accelerates to outpace the population growth rate of about 1.5%, the unemployment rate will persist in its ascent.
Sanisha Packirisamy, economist at Momentum Investments, echoes Blackmore’s concerns, highlighting the failure of policy interventions to redress the structural impediments perpetuating joblessness. She identifies the misalignment between available jobs and the skill sets of graduates as a critical issue warranting attention.
Alarming statistics reveal a doubling in the number of individuals trapped in long-term unemployment, surpassing 8.2 million. Disparities in unemployment rates are stark, disproportionately impacting South Africa’s youth and Black population.
In response to the mounting crisis, the ANC government instituted a temporary benefit for the working-age unemployed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, despite its temporary intent, the program was extended earlier this year in recognition of the enduring severity of the unemployment dilemma.
